I heard, during the night, on the BBC World Service, that the Greek Prime Minister has changed his mind about the referenda, I’ve no doubt under political pressure. I think it is felt that there will be a vote of confidence mounted shortly and he will probably go and a general election called. In any event, popular opinion has it that the end result would probably mean that Greece leaves the Eurozone. and restores, what one commentator, irreverently called that ‘Mickey Mouse’ currency, the drachma. Whichever way you look at it the Greek citizens are in for a rough for the next three or four years, if not longer. Remember, how long it took Japan, the second biggest industrial nation in the Western world, to drag itself out of its recession’
I believe the problem may well have emanated from to exercise of due diligence (or more correctly the lack of it) in determining what exchange rate to give Greece when it entered into the Eurozone. (I.e. 10 Euro equals X number of drachma) Obviously there’s a great deal to be taken on trust and unless there is complete honesty and open bookis it must be very difficult to get an exact exchange rate, which is fair to both sides.
If Greece does leave the Eurozone, this, of course, will be unprecedented and no one quite knows what the ramifications will be. Germany and France have maintained steadfastly that they will not allow this to happen but it may be beyond their control. Once one has gone then, as I suggested the other day, countries like Portugal, Italy and even France, could follow. Although this situation has been discussed at the recent G 20 meeting of finance ministers there is as yet no clear plan established. It seems that the IMF could cope with Greece and its problems but if one of the larger economies such as Italy went down, as things stand, present emergency measures would have to be taken. Even then, if more than one country goes under it seems to me that the whole Eurozone is likely to crumble (there has to be a limit to how much bailing out the Germans are prepared to do) and, as a result, countries will go back using to their own currencies, allowing them to float to their real value in the world market, as we have done in England. Whether that would be the end of it or the beginning of world recession. Heaven knows, I am no economist and maybe talking complete rot!.
Turning to matters of more immediate importance to us. ‘My lovely’ shot off-again early this morning . once I was settled in my study chair, this time to Cambridge. She is a glutton for punishment’. Shopping in Cambridge can be a nightmare at the best of times, apart from the parking, which even in the multi-storey car park can take some time to achieve,. Then wandering around, from shop to shop, in the breezy, drizzly cold weather, is not my idea of fun. In any event, she has given me a substantial wad of pocket money to take the good Dr to lunch at the Cricketers. I was quite reconciled to the fact that this would probably be the first time we will be driven indoors by the weather and hoped that at least we could sit outside with our coffee and cigar,. However, quite incredibly the weather changed almost exactly at 12.30. as we approached the pub,. Suddenly, the clouds rolled away and a azure blue sky appeared and we basked in the warmth of the winter sunshine. . It was unreal, particularly as it only lasted until we decided to come home around 2.30, then the clouds rolled in and rain was threatened.. This was even more astonishing realising that it was 4 November.
The alternative would have been to do what we did last night and have our drink and cheapo cigar, in the breakfast room, having discovered, last evening, that the mobile wheelchair actually fits between the arch, which divides the kitchen and from the breakfast room. This would be particularly good at Christmas, when all the family will be here, because it means that we can have our Christmas dinner in the breakfast room altogether and I will be able to join in, without having to go outside in the cold. where I had visions of driving outside in the wind and rain to get there. This discovery is important for my poor bottom as instead of having to sit in the same chair for 14 hours . I now have an alternative which will give me a change from my study.
As a whole, world seems topsy-turvy at present I thought these weird pictures would be appropriate to add to today’s entry. Click here to see them.